Exploring the impact of weather variations, sporting events and health media on patient demand in primary care
By Dr Hussain Al-Zubaidi, Mr Stephen Gallagher
Introduction
GP surgeries are under ever increasing pressure. Understanding the factors which influence patient demand would:
- Optimise staff work patterns
- Targeted locus deployment
- Enable sustainability planning
Method
Weather data collected from the Met office. Sport and media data collected from the BBC website. Study carried out over one year.
Strong linear relationship between patient demand and temperature p<0.001
World Cup matches resulted in significant declines in on the day patient demand.
No other sporting even (including cricket, cycling or rugby) demonstrated a similar pattern
- England match: -16%
- Non-England: -5%
News reports on cancer result in a 9% increase in demand within 24 hours of publication.
Pleasant settled weather (group 0 to 1) resulted in profound reductions in demand (p<0.05) with the inverse true of unpleasant wet weather (group 4 to 5).
Snowy weather bucked the trend with a 16% reduction due to difficulty travelling to the surgery.
Strong linear relationship between demand and solar energy p<0.001
Key Conclusions
Patient demand in primary care is strongly associated with a number of independent variables. Ranging from specific sporting events, health-related articles and weather variables.
The Future
- Predictive model for patient demand formulated on established relationships
- Accurate to <±6%
- Forecasting tool allows the practice to intelligently reply resources based on predicted demand, maximising efficiency
- We plan to implement this tool in other practice. If interested, please pick up a flyer.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Jumana Al-Zubaidi and James Farley Nicholls for their advice on the statistical analysis of the weather data. I would also like to thank all the staff at Clarendon Lodge Medical Practice for their help and support.